Are Individuals Fickle-Minded?

Game theory has been used to model large-scale social events — such as constitutional law, democratic stability, standard setting, gender roles, social movements, communication, markets, the selection of officials by means of elections, coalition formation, resource allocation, distribution of goods, and war — as the aggregate result of individual choices in interdependent decision-making. Game theory in this way assumes methodological individualism. The widespread observation that game theory predictions do not in general match observation has led to many attempts to repair game theory by creating behavioral game theory, which adds corrective terms to the game theoretic predictions in the hope of making predictions that better match observations. But for game theory to be useful in making predictions, we must be able to generalize from an individual’s behavior in one situation to that individual’s behavior in very closely similar situations. In other words, behavioral game theory needs individuals to be reasonably consistent in action if the theory is to have predictive power. We argue on the basis of experimental evidence that the assumption of such consistency is unwarranted. More realistic models of individual agents must be developed that acknowledge the variance in behavior for a given individual

Anti-Arthritic Activity in Rats of Some Phosphinegold(I) Thionucleobases and Related Thiolates

A number of phosphinegold(I) thiolates where, generally, the thiolate is derived from a thionucleobase, have been screened for anti-arthritic activity in Dark Agouti rats, a gold sensitive model for arthritis. Potency and toxicity data showed that, generally, the Ph3P derivatives and species based on thiopurines were the most effective and that with other complexes enhanced activity was accompanied by greater toxicity

Airway microbiota in severe asthma and relationship to asthma severity and phenotypes

BACKGROUND:The lower airways harbor a community of bacterial species which is altered in asthma. OBJECTIVES:We examined whether the lower airway microbiota were related to measures of asthma severity. METHODS:We prospectively recruited 26 severe asthma, 18 non-severe asthma and 12 healthy subjects. DNA was extracted from induced sputum and PCR amplification of the V3-V5 region of bacterial 16S rRNA gene was performed. RESULTS:We obtained 138,218 high quality sequences which were rarefied at 133 sequences/sample. Twenty OTUs had sequences ≥1% of total. There were marked differences in the distribution of Phyla between groups (P = 2.8x10-118). Bacteroidetes and Fusobacteria were reduced in non-severe and severe asthmatic groups. Proteobacteria were more common in non-severe asthmatics compared to controls (OR = 2.26; 95% CI = 1.94-2.64) and Firmicutes were increased in severe asthmatics compared to controls (OR = 2.15; 95%CI = 1.89-2.45). Streptococcal OTUs amongst the Firmicutes were associated with recent onset asthma, rhinosinusitis and sputum eosinophilia. CONCLUSIONS:Sputum microbiota in severe asthma differs from healthy controls and non-severe asthmatics, and is characterized by the presence of Streptococcus spp with eosinophilia. Whether these organisms are causative for the pathophysiology of asthma remains to be determined

Nosocomial transmission of C. difficile in English hospitals from patients with symptomatic infection.

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence suggests that less than one-quarter of patients with symptomatic nosocomial Clostridium difficile infections (CDI) are linked to other in-patients. However, this evidence was limited to one geographic area. We aimed to investigate the level of symptomatic CDI transmission in hospitals located across England from 2008 to 2012. METHODS: A generalized additive mixed-effects Poisson model was fitted to English hospital-surveillance data. After adjusting for seasonal fluctuations and between-hospital variation in reported CDI over time, possible clustering (transmission between symptomatic in-patients) of CDI cases was identified. We hypothesised that a temporal proximity would be reflected in the degree of correlation between in-hospital CDI cases per week. This correlation was modelled through a latent autoregressive structure of order 1 (AR(1)). FINDINGS: Forty-six hospitals (33 general, seven specialist, and six teaching hospitals) located in all English regions met our criteria. In total, 12,717 CDI cases were identified; seventy-five per cent of these occurred >48 hours after admission. There were slight increases in reports during winter months. We found a low, but statistically significant, correlation between successive weekly CDI case incidences (phi = 0.029, 95%CI: 0.009-0.049). This correlation was five times stronger in a subgroup analysis restricted to teaching hospitals (phi = 0.104, 95%CI: 0.048-0.159). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that symptomatic patient-to-patient transmission has been a source of CDI-acquisition in English hospitals in recent years, and that this might be a more important transmission route in teaching hospitals. Nonetheless, the weak correlation indicates that, in line with recent evidence, symptomatic cases might not be the primary source of nosocomial CDI in England

Balancing equity and efficiency in the Dutch basic benefits package using the principle of proportional shortfall

Economic evaluations are increasingly used to inform decisions regarding the allocation of scarce health care resources. To systematically incorporate societal preferences into these evaluations, quality-adjusted life year gains could be weighted according to some equity principle, the most suitable of which is a matter of frequent debate. While many countries still struggle with equity concerns for priority setting in health care, the Netherlands has reached a broad consensus to use the concept of proportional shortfall. Our study evaluates the concept and its support in the Dutch health care context. We discuss arguments in the Netherlands for using proportional shortfall and difficulties in transitioning from principle to practice. In doing so, we address universal issues leading to a systematic consideration of equity concerns for priority setting in health care. The article thus has relevance to all countries struggling with the formalization of equity concerns for priority setting

Transmission of Staphylococcus aureus between health-care workers, the environment, and patients in an intensive care unit: a longitudinal cohort study based on whole-genome sequencing

Background: Health-care workers have been implicated in nosocomial outbreaks of Staphylococcus aureus, but the dearth of evidence from non-outbreak situations means that routine health-care worker screening and S aureus eradication are controversial. We aimed to determine how often S aureus is transmitted from health-care workers or the environment to patients in an intensive care unit (ICU) and a high-dependency unit (HDU) where standard infection control measures were in place. Methods: In this longitudinal cohort study, we systematically sampled health-care workers, the environment, and patients over 14 months at the ICU and HDU of the Royal Sussex County Hospital, Brighton, England. Nasal swabs were taken from health-care workers every 4 weeks, bed spaces were sampled monthly, and screening swabs were obtained from patients at admission to the ICU or HDU, weekly thereafter, and at discharge. Isolates were cultured and their whole genome sequenced, and we used the threshold of 40 single-nucleotide variants (SNVs) or fewer to define subtypes and infer recent transmission. Findings: Between Oct 31, 2011, and Dec 23, 2012, we sampled 198 health-care workers, 40 environmental locations, and 1854 patients; 1819 isolates were sequenced. Median nasal carriage rate of S aureus in health-care workers at 4-weekly timepoints was 36·9% (IQR 35·7–37·3), and 115 (58%) health-care workers had S aureus detected at least once during the study. S aureus was identified in 8–50% of environmental samples. 605 genetically distinct subtypes were identified (median SNV difference 273, IQR 162–399) at a rate of 38 (IQR 34–42) per 4-weekly cycle. Only 25 instances of transmission to patients (seven from health-care workers, two from the environment, and 16 from other patients) were detected. Interpretation: In the presence of standard infection control measures, health-care workers were infrequently sources of transmission to patients. S aureus epidemiology in the ICU and HDU is characterised by continuous ingress of distinct subtypes rather than transmission of genetically related strains. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, UK National Institute for Health Research, and Public Health England